Wednesday, March 17, 2010

NCAA Tournament Picks

There's something about March Madness that brings out the best, worst and most importantly unlucky side of me. As far as sports go, this time of year is about as exhilarating as it gets, especially given that my former institution of higher learning, (New Hampshire) has about as much chance of being invited to the dance as Nancy Pelosi does at being invited to the next RNC.

Quite simply it is 63 games. Sixty-three of the best games of the year, all packed into a 20 day stretch. The beauty is that all of us: from the casual sports fan, to the diehard bracketologist, to the person who had a brief, but moderately enjoyable encounter with an orange ball around the age of six, will try to predict the outcome of them all.

I will join the nation in pretending to be nostrahoopous, but I issue this warning first, to all of you who will live and die with your picks, eat, sleep and live the tournament, close your mind to your day job only to gaze hopelessly into the streaming video of games online. Your picks will be wrong, as will mine, but remember, it is that one chance that you will be right, that one special year, that makes it all worth it.

Midwest Region: Ohio St. Emerges
The odds on favorite to come out of the midwest is indisputably Kansas. They earn the distinction as the number one overall and I think they've got a pretty clear run into the round of 8.

The bottom part of this bracket is absolutely loaded: Tennessee, Georgetown, even Georgia Tech have really good teams that could make a run, and that doesn't even mention Ohio St.

When making picks, I look at two factors above all else, how strong is the conference you play in, and who's got the best player. For me, Georgetown played in the best conference and Ohio St. (Evan Turner) has the best player. The Hoyas get into the sweet 16, but their inconsistancy bites them there. Turner wins the game for Ohio St. and the Buckeyes go onto beat Kansas for a spot in the final four.

West: Orange Talent Too Much
There's not much to say here. Syracuse has the best team in this bracket. What killed the Orange in the Big East tournament was lack of momentum and momentum is something Syracuse will have and have thrived on in the past (who can forget Gerry Mcnamara).

Kansas St. is incredibly talented, don't get me wrong, but I think Syracuse is just more prepared for this tournament. The zone will be firing on all cylinders by the time they play in the elite 8, and by then, it will be too late for K- State.

East: Might as Well Throw a Dart (But aim it at Kentucky)
By far the most intriguing regional. In my eyes West Virginia deserved a #1 seed, but still ends up with a tougher road than the other #2 from the Big East Villanova (we'll get there). This bracket has the second most entertaining five-twelve matchup in Cornell taking on higher seeded Temple. Potential story line is that IF Cornell does get past Temple, they have a chance to make a nice run into this thing, at least the best an Ivy League school has done in about 100 years.

Kentucky has the most talent, and that's why I think they will ultimately emerge out of this bracket, but they will face some tests along the way. The Wildcats youth (now a staple of John Calipari teams) sometimes makes them play down to the opponents level, but in the end, the combination of Wall, Cousins, Patterson and Bledsoe is the most talented in the country by far.

Look for one of the epic battles in the last 10 years when Kentucky plays West Virginia in the elite 8.

South: Wait, Didn't the NIT Start Yesterday?
Filling out the bracket, I looked at the South and my jaw dropped. Duke is overrated, and Villanova by no means deserves a #2 seed. Then I start asking myself the all important question: which of the other teams can beat these overrated teams? And in this bracket, I truly don't know.

The argument could be made that Villanova has the easiest road in the tournament, period. Louisville is not that good of a team, but they will find a way to beat Duke and subsequently find themselves pitted against Nova in the elite 8 for a great Big East matchup which Louisville will somehow win and will face Kentucky in one of the biggest hyped semifinal games in tournament history.

Purdue got hosed when they got a #4 seed and will be ousted by Siena, who actually has a chance to make it to the final four if they play some inspired basketball here.

Final Four and Championship:
I won't analyze this yet because as I said before, I will be proven wrong shortly anyway, but here are my predictions on the outcome.

Ohio St. over Syracuse
Kentucky over Louisville

Championship: Kentucky over Ohio St.

There it is folks, my shot in the dark that may possibly be right. We'll see 63 games over the next 20 days, but only one team will be a national champion.

My complete bracket is below, click it to make it bigger.

Comment with thoughts or your own picks!



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